Deals & development · 11/05/2026
Opinion: Hochul unlikely to back statewide rent stabilization in 2027
In a Real Deal opinion column, the writer argues that Gov. Hochul's 20-point reelection win means she will not back the REST Act, which would let localities adopt rent regulation, or new taxes on the wealthy. He predicts a 2027 housing package focused on new construction, a 485x reform modeled on the 467m office conversion program, and a plan for vacant rent-stabilized units.
Reported by The Real Deal · New YorkRead the original ↗
What happened
Gov. Kathy Hochul won reelection over Republican challenger and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman in the 11/03/2026 election. The Real Deal reported on 11/04/2026 that the Associated Press called the race for Hochul, with significant backing from real estate donors. In an opinion column published 11/05/2026, The Real Deal said Hochul won by 20 points, 15 more than her margin four years ago.
The column argues that Mayor Zohran Mamdani and a larger group of socialist lawmakers will not push Hochul to the left on real estate. It predicts she will not support the REST Act, a bill that would create several paths for localities to adopt rent regulation. It also predicts that Assembly and Senate leaders will not send the bill to her desk, and that she will not pass a third millionaires' tax or a mansion tax. These are the writer's predictions, not announced decisions.
The column notes that Hochul gave Mamdani his pied-à-terre tax and a few billion dollars to balance the city budget. After that aid, she said the city would have to manage its budget on its own. Last month, Albany's Common Council passed a commuter tax that needed the governor's consent. Hochul opposed it, and Albany's mayor vetoed it, citing her opposition.
The writer predicts Hochul and Mamdani will work with the Building and Construction Trades Council and 32BJ SEIU on a reform of 485x. The column says that program has capped multifamily projects at 99 units. It expects the reform to follow the model of 467m, the state's office conversion program in the city, as part of a broader housing package. The writer also expects a proposal on the 57,000 vacant rent-stabilized apartments in New York City. Assembly member Tony Simone has already introduced a "State of Yes" bill that includes more tenant protections.
Key facts
- Election date
- 11/03/2026
- Result
- Hochul defeated Republican Bruce Blakeman, per the Associated Press
- Margin
- 20 points, 15 more than four years ago (per The Real Deal column)
- REST Act
- Would create several paths for localities to adopt rent regulation; column predicts Hochul will not support it
- 485x
- Column says it has capped multifamily projects at 99 units
- Vacant stabilized units
- 57,000 (and counting) vacant rent-stabilized apartments in New York City
- Pending bill
- Assembly member Tony Simone's "State of Yes" bill, including more tenant protections
- Column published
- 11/05/2026, The Real Deal
What it means
Landlords
The column predicts no statewide expansion of rent regulation through the REST Act next year. This is a prediction, and no rule has changed.
Tenants and voucher holders
Current rent stabilization protections stay as they are. The REST Act and Simone's bill are proposals only, and the column expects the REST Act will not advance.
Buyers and owners
Developers may see an attempt to reform 485x, which the column says has limited multifamily projects to 99 units. The column also expects a possible proposal on vacant rent-stabilized apartments. Neither has been announced.
The highlights
- Hochul beat Bruce Blakeman by 20 points, 15 more than four years ago.
- Columnist expects a fix to 485x, which has capped multifamily projects at 99 units.
- He also expects action on NYC's 57,000 vacant rent-stabilized apartments.
Why it matters Landlords
If the column is right, wider rent regulation looks unlikely in 2027, while changes to 485x and vacant stabilized units may come.
What to do: Watch the 2027 Albany housing package for 485x and vacant-unit changes.
Not known yet
- What a 485x reform would actually change, and when it might be proposed
- What a plan for the 57,000 vacant rent-stabilized apartments would require of owners
- What specific tenant protections Simone's "State of Yes" bill contains
- Whether legislative leaders or the governor have said anything about the REST Act
Background
Rent stabilization in New York City is governed by state law, so major changes to it are made in Albany and must pass the Legislature and be signed by the governor. New York State Homes and Community Renewal (HCR) administers rent stabilization. The city's Rent Guidelines Board sets allowable increases on stabilized lease renewals. Programs like 485x and 467m are state tax incentives meant to encourage new rental construction and office-to-residential conversions. They are typically changed through state legislation, often as part of the budget.
Also drawn from: Real estate-backed Hochul defeats Blakeman in governor’s race (The Real Deal · New York) · NY Dirt: Election day arrives with real estate watching (The Real Deal · New York)
Summary written by Bulwark from The Real Deal · New York’s reporting. The original story is at therealdeal.com. This is general information, not legal advice.
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